Revised Population Projections Increase the Waste Challenge

Andrew Olie
March 13, 2024

Population projections by the ONS in January 2024 show higher growth than previous forecasts, which will lead to increased waste arisings and significant challenges for the delivery of the Resource Efficiency and Waste Reduction Target for 2042.

In April 2022 the detailed evidence report and impact assessment¹ were published for the resource efficiency and waste reduction targets associated with the Environment Act 2021. It accessed population statistics from the ONS² as at January 2022 and set the evidence base to support the regulatory targets³ to reduce residual waste arisings (see report for the definition and scope of wastes included) to 50% of the 2019 figure of 560kg per person by 2042.

The ONS population trajectory at January 2022 is summarised in the graph below in orange dots, with the forecast as at January 2024⁴ in a solid blue line (the forecast stops at 2046 and so a linear projection has been added to 2050). By 2042 the difference between the two forecasts amount to an increase of 4.8m people, and by 2050 this moves up to 6.4m.

If the 50% target was delivered by 2042, that would give rise to an additional 1.3m tonnes of residual waste requiring management, and by 2050 that increases to 1.8m tonnes against the plan. That said, the target itself is acknowledged as ambitious and requires a municipal recycling rate of around 70 to 75%. If, for example, the residual figure only reached 350kg per person, the impact is an additional 1.7m tonnes of residual waste in 2042 and 2.3m tonnes by 2050.

Not only does this have an impact for the infrastructure required for residual waste, it has obvious implications for total waste arisings, and increases the challenges for waste reduction and the need for the additional infrastructure required for recycling and recovery that would result.